Wednesday, February 25, 2009

Devine inspiration

I remember watching Joey Devine's first Major League appearance, a Fox Saturday Baseball game that was played two short months after the Braves drafted him 27th overall out of N.C. State in 2005. Devine entered a game against the Padres that was tied at two in the 12th inning and pretty easily retired the side. Then Bobby Cox allowed Devine to start the 13th, and the scalding waters of Hell broke loose and drowned poor Joey right there on the Turner Field mound. He gave up four runs, capitulating on a monster grand slam to Xavier Nady. I thought I may have seen the last of Joey Devine. I hadn't.


The second time I saw Joey Devine pitch was two months later, when Bobby Cox again brought him into an extra-innings game, this time in the NLDS against the Astros. Devine, whose entrance literally emptied the bullpen in the 17th inning, quickly retired the Astros but gave up the NLCS-winning home run to Chris Burke with one out in the 18th. Though I've read about his travails, I haven't seen him pitch since.


Which is why I guffawed when I saw his 2008 line as a member of the A's -- he was traded in the Mark Kotsay deal in January 2008. In 45 innings, Devine struck out 49, while allowing 38 baserunners (15 walks, 23 hits). His ERA was a nifty 0.59 and his ERA + was a staggering 685. I had no idea ERA + could get that high. In fact, it doesn't very often.


Thanks to the life-changing Baseball-Reference Play-Index, I now know that among pitchers with at least 25 innings pitched, Joey Devine posted the second-highest single-season ERA + total since 1901. He trailed only Buck O'Brien, who posted a ludicrous 866 ERA + in 47.2 innings of the 1911 season. Moreover, only nine players have ever posted an ERA + over 500 in more than 25 innings of work since 1911, including Jon Papelbon (515) and Dennys Reyes (504) in the 2006 season.


I'll eschew the obvious descriptor and say that Joey Devine's 2008 season was the apotheosis of great relief pitching and is a feat that may not be equaled for some time. But damn, way to rebound, young man.

Tuesday, February 24, 2009

You throw batteries at the other Drew.

Consider the stats of three 25-year-old middle infielders, all playing in good hitting environments:


Player A: .291/.333/.502, 21 HR, 67 RsBI, 110 OPS +


Player B: .263/.355/.441, 20 HR, 61 RsBI, 109 OPS +


Player C: .266/.308/.468, 13 HR, 57 RsBI, 93 OPS +


The third set of counting numbers are diminished because their owner, Chase Utley, only appeared in 94 games as a 25-year-old. But the rate stats hold true.


The second set of counting numbers are also dampened slightly because their owner, Ian Kinsler, appeared in 130 games. The rate stats still hold true.


The owner of the first set of stats, Stephen Drew, played 152 games as a 25-year-old. His rate stats are the best of the bunch. He also became only the third short stop in history -- joining Nomar Garciaparra and Robin Yount -- to accumulate 40 doubles, 10 triples and 20 home runs, which is admittedly a bit of an invented stat.


All told, Drew accumulated 76 extra-base hits in 2008, which beat Hanley Ramirez (71) and Jose Reyes (73) -- though to be fair, Ramirez and Reyes didn't play in hitter-friendly parks.


Now consider what Kinsler and Utley did as 26-year-olds:


Kinsler: (121 GP) .319/.375/.517, 18 HR, 71 RsBI, 134 OPS +


Utley: .291/.376/.540, 28 HR, 105 RsBI, 132 OPS +


Baseball Prospectus' PECOTA projection system doesn't see Drew quite matching the age-26 seasons of Kinsler or Utley, but it does rank Drew as an elite short stop in EQA (ninth among SS), slugging (third), VORP (sixth) and Upside (ninth).


Drew is a talented hitter with a ton of upside. He's not that far off from being an elite short stop, and he bears watching in 2009 and beyond.

Monday, February 23, 2009

The Audacity of dope.

For fans who are tired of the A-Rod scandal but not quite ready for World Baseball Classic scandal, consider the curious case of Nationals general manager Jim Bowden. During a week in which Bowden should still be basking in the glow of his first big-fish free agent signing as Nationals GM, Adam Dunn, the embattled executive instead finds himself answering to reporters about his club's operations in Latin America. Specifically, Bowden must address questions about whether he was involved in wrongdoing in skimming bonuses from Latin American players. Moreover, it is Bowden's employer that is encouraging the investigation.


Bowden's best possible outcome is that he's portrayed as an incompetent supervisor, one who, potentially since 1994, has unwittingly allowed his scouts in the region to illegally take pieces of signing bonuses that should have gone to players. This would add to Bowden's already impressive run of incompetence, from the 102-loss 2008 regular season to failing to properly gauge the contract demands of ninth-overall pick Aaron Crow and adjust his team's draft board accordingly.*


Bowden's worst possible outcome is that he was complicit in the scandal, in which case he should find legal representation. He will be fired if he had a hand in the scandal.


Either way, it makes the decision to double the next-highest bidder in the Esmailyn Gonzalez negotiation look like another of Bowden's major blunders. Gonzalez was, of course, found out to be four years older than originally thought, making the Texas Rangers happy that the Nationals overbid for his services by $700,000.


As a general rule of thumb, anytime an executive must stand before reporters and say, "I'm innocent of any wrongdoing, and besides that I don't have any comment," it usually means his walking papers are in short order. Organizations, particularly baseball teams, don't run well with controversial winds swirling. Already, team president Stan Kasten appears less-than-pleased with the storm. Witness this quote from the WaPo writeup:


"While talking about Bowden on Monday, Kasten bemoaned the lack of recent attention given to on-field story lines. 'It's happened with your backs turned to it at the moment,' Kasten said, motioning to one of the practice fields. 'I hope you're not happy about that. Something could be happening out there. We could have Adam Dunn at third base at the moment and you wouldn't know about it.'"


Win or lose, it may be time for Jim Bowden to freshen up his resume. Unfortunately, he won't have Cold Pizza as a fallback option this time.


* The Nationals get the tenth pick in the 2009 Draft as compensation for losing Crow, but that just delays their rebuilding by a season. They would have been better served drafting a Brett Wallace, a Justin Smoak or a Jemille Weeks and adding that player to their 25-man roster as much as a full year earlier.

Sunday, February 22, 2009

Votto is my Vato.

Consider the stats of two rookie first basemen, both 24-years-old, both playing in friendly hitting environs:


Player A: .297/.368/.506, 24 HR, 84 RsBI, 124 OPS+

Player B: .315/.380/.530, 25 HR, 97 RsBI, 119 OPS+


The question arises: Player B has the better numbers across the board, but Player A has the better OPS +. What's the disconnect? It may help to point out that Player A is Reds first baseman Joey Votto, and Player B is Rockies first baseman Todd Helton. Adjust their numbers to neutral ballparks, as OPS + does, and Votto comes out ahead. That bears restating and italicization:


In a neutral hitting environment, Joey Votto was a better player as a rookie than was Todd Helton.


The Reds are counting on Votto to play a key role in their offense in 2009, and he will rack up plenty of RsBI while hitting with Jay Bruce and Brandon Phillips on base. Votto's logical place in the Reds batting order is the cleanup spot, and he'll feast on NL Central pitching, where the most fearsome lefty is Ted Lilly.


Baseball Prospectus projects Votto to finish 12th among first basemen in EQA, 9th in slugging and 11th in VORP. Eschew the Justin Morneaus and Adrian Gonzalezes and draft Votto a few rounds later. Better yet, draft both and get a solid first baseman and utility player.


Votto is a solid bet as he enters his second season in Cincy -- draft him in the middle rounds so you can take premium talent at other positions early. Plug Joey Votto in their lineup every day and focus your worries elsewhere.

Wednesday, February 18, 2009

Tiger's back.

Who is the best American athlete going right now? Is it LeBron? Kobe? Manning? Casey Hampton?


It's this guy.


Tiger Woods will never again exist outside public consciousness, but he's spent the past eight months about as far out of sight as possible The biggest story about Tiger since he went down to injury has been the birth of his second child, a son named Charlie Axel. So when his caddy and confidant Steve Williams says Tiger's knee is about "95 percent" healthy, and that he "just needs a little bit more walking. He hasn’t been able to walk too well," it should put the rest of the PGA Tour on notice.


Like baseball players, golfers must have strong legs to hit the ball at peak efficiency, so it's a bit disconcerting to hear that "Woods had remodeled his swing to accommodate his injured knee." But in the annals of recorded medical history, recovery from a torn ACL and stress fracture isn't unique. Woods is a great athlete, though the talk of him being able to succeed in any sport is a bit over-the-top. Regardless, he's just about the perfect golfer. And he's back.


Over/under two major wins for Tiger this year?

Intransigence in Lubbock, Texas

Mike Leach is a good, albeit somewhat overrated Big 12 coach. He's probably not worth a five-year, $12.7 million contract ($2.54 million per annum), but in the Big 12, that seems to be the going rate for somewhat overrated head coaches. Gary Pinkel makes $2.3 million per year until 2015; Mike Gundy makes $2.2 million until 2015. Leach is not a better coach than either Pinkel or Gundy, though he is more in-demand -- HE LIKES PIRATES, says ESPN, HE'S TOTALLY NOW -- so he will get a small popularity premium included in his salary.


That said, the sticking point in the Leach-Tech negotiation seems to be a clause in the contract that "would trigger his firing and a $1.5 million penalty if he interviews for another job without athletic director Gerald Myers' permission."


In an era when Bobby Petrinos openly quit on their teams and Rich Rodriguezes leave their dream jobs unfinshed, there is no loyalty in football coaching, college or pro. It's somewhat refreshing to see college ADs take stands against head coaches with clear, obvious cases of Wanderlust. Anybody who thinks -- new contract or otherwise -- that Leach won't bolt Lubbock for the first major college big-fish job he can find is fooling themselves and has probably never visited Lubbock, Texas. Monetary penalty be damned, Leach is gone. Tech should save themselves the trouble and start interviewing candidates now.


And as far as Leach goes, well, Dabo Swinney should probably watch his back. Clemson boosters are aiming a Sword of Damocles named Mike Leach for a spot located just below Swinney's fifth lumbar vertebra.

Sometimes winning isn't everything.

Great writing by AP sports columnist Tim Dahlberg, who tells the story of a game between the DeKalb, Ill., High School basketball team and Milwaukee Madison. After traveling two hours to play a road game, the DeKalb players made a tremendous show of sportsmanship, sacrificing two points to help an opposing player honor his recently passed mother. It reminds us what sports can mean to people in their times of need. It reminds us what sports writing can and should be.